Research Presentation Shows Flaw in the CAM Model, Based on Observation.

Research on sea ice loss and and cloud coverage show a flaw in the CAM3.5 and CAM4 climate models, based off of observations.

The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is the atmosphere component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is one of the primary tools for climate science studies in the United States. The CCSM consists of atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea-ice components coupled through exchange of mass, momentum, energy, and chemical species. (SciDAC Journal of Physics: Conference Series 78, 2007)

Jennifer Kay, 32, sees her lectures around the states as a tour, moving from one place to another, getting feedback from people in the same career field and uses that feedback in her new research and lectures. Kay compared this to a tour in the way that she gets feedback and uses it on her next project, as artists use feedback from their audience to better their next album.

CAM3.5 has a built-in response between sea ice and clouds in fixed atmospheric regimes. The system shows that clouds increase over newly open water, but this feedback is not realistic as proven by observations.

“Observations reveal no summer cloud response to sea ice loss, but cloud increases during early fall,” said Kay “CAM3.5 has a built-in feedback between stratus clouds and sea ice. This feedback produces unrealistic cloud increases over newly open water in stable atmospheric regimes.”

“It is a useful way to talk to collaborators and get feedback” said Kay, speaking of her research presentation. “It’s pretty fun. The people are fun and nice.”

Jennifer Kay’s lecture on Arctic sea ice and its interactions with the environment was held in Burt Hall Tuesday afternoon. There were about 30 attendees, most attending due to similar interests, such as Boundary Layer Meteorologist, Larry Mahrt, and Jim Coakley, Atmospheric Scientist.

Jim Coakley said he came to the lecture because “I’m an atmospheric scientist; this is what I do.”

“This is such a rapidly changing field”, said Coakley. “There has been so much evolution of these models. We are putting together space observations. We couldn’t do that 20 years ago.”

CAM4, the most recent climate observation model, is showing arctic sea ice loss at a slower rate than it is actually occurring at. The CAM4 model is showing a projection of clouds in areas where there are not actually clouds. Clouds have a cooling effect on the climate and block solar radiation, so having those in the CAM4 model would mean the ice is more blocked and likely to melt at a slower rate. Without those clouds, there is more solar radiation on the ice and it is in a warmer climate, making the sea ice melt much more quickly than projected, meaning that climate change could be much more severe than we believe.